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2004. május 19. P. Kiss Gábor & Vadas Gábor: Mind the Gap - Watch the Ways of Cyclical Adjustment of the Budget

nyomtatás
2004. május 19. P. Kiss Gábor & Vadas Gábor előadása magyar nyelven: angol címe: Mind the Gap - Watch the Ways of Cyclical Adjustment of the Budget

MNB Látogatóközpont 15.00

Abstract

Cyclically adjusted budget deficit (CAB) is widely cited and used concept in the evaluation of fiscal stance. The key idea behind it is to separate the independent conjunctural effect on budget deficit from the intentional measures of fiscal policy. The computation of CAB is based on the identification of potential level of economic variables. Both European Commission and European Central Bank propose methods for measuring CAB, however, they are not fully capable of satisfying all requirements. In this paper we present an alternative method, which is able to incorporate the advantages of both approaches. Combining output gap from production function and constrained multivariate HP filter induces theory based disaggregated approach. Results show that aggregated (EC) and disaggregated (ECB and our alternative method) approaches provide different estimations for the benefit of the latter.

Paper

Kapcsolat: Szilágyi Eszter

szilagyiesz@mnb.hu