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Liquidity forecast

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Based on the decision of Monetary Council of 6 September 2010 the Bank will publish its forecasts of the factors affecting the banking sector’s liquidity need from 14 September 2010. The aim of the forecasts is to facilitate the optimal recourse to the Bank’s main policy instrument through supporting credit institutions’ liquidity management and to ensure that credit institutions rely increasingly less on the overnight standing lending and deposit facilities.
The MNB’s liquidity forecast offers the maximum amount of support for the banking sector’s liquidity management if it provides a guideline for the optimum volume of 3-month MNB deposit at the banking sector level. Hence, every Wednesday at 9 am before the MNB deposit tender, the MNB publishes the average effect of instruments influencing the level of HUF liquidity concerning the next 7 days compared to Tuesday. In the case of a holiday, the date of the deposit tender can change and this is followed by the liquidity forecast as well. The published value shows the difference between the liquidity of reference day (Tuesday) and the average liquidity of the 7-days period from Wednesday to next Tuesday. Banking sector HUF liquidity is determined by the following instruments:
  • items with liquidity effect of Treasury account;
  • cash in circulation;
  • central bank instruments, interest payments.
Counterparties should be aware of the fact that, due primarily to the difficulty of forecasting the balance on the Treasury account, the Bank is able to estimate the expected size of the banking sector’s liquidity only with considerable uncertainty. Therefore, the Bank does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy of forecasts, and it will neither publish nor comment on any deviation of the forecasts from actual liquidity subsequently.