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Liquidity forecast

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Based on the decision of Monetary Council of 6 September 2010 the Bank publishes its forecasts of the factors affecting the banking sector’s liquidity need from 14 September 2010. The aim of the forecasts is supporting credit institutions’ liquidity management.

Every Wednesday at 9 am the MNB publishes the average effect of instruments influencing the level of HUF liquidity concerning the next 7 days compared to Tuesday. In the case of a holiday, the date of the liquidity forecast can change. The published value shows the difference between the liquidity of reference day (Tuesday) and the average liquidity of the 7-days period from Wednesday to next Tuesday. Banking sector HUF liquidity is determined by the following instruments:

  • items with liquidity effect of Treasury account;
  • cash in circulation;
  • central bank instruments, interest payments.

Counterparties should be aware of the fact that, due primarily to the difficulty of forecasting the balance on the Treasury account, the Bank is able to estimate the expected size of the banking sector’s liquidity only with considerable uncertainty. Therefore, the Bank does not assume any responsibility for the accuracy of forecasts, and it will neither publish nor comment on any deviation of the forecasts from actual liquidity subsequently.

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