Lámfalussy

Monday, 18 May 2026

Global Imbalances in a Changing World Order

The next Lámfalussy Lectures Conference will be held on Monday, May 18, 2026. The Lámfalussy Lectures Series, named after Baron Alexandre Lamfalussy, „the Father of the Euro”, is a prestigious international conference hosted by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank, the central bank of Hungary.

The main theme of the next edition of the Lámfalussy conference is ‘Global Imbalances in a Changing World Order’. Over the past few decades, the global financial and trading system has rested on the economic might of the United States, the safe‑haven status of U.S. Treasuries, and the dominance of the dollar. The “exorbitant privilege” of the American economy has led to growing global imbalances — in balance of payments, international investment positions, the composition of foreign exchange reserves, and sovereign debt levels. These imbalances create the conditions for sudden capital movements and financial crises. Recent shocks — the pandemic, regional conflicts, and the energy crisis — have once again widened current account imbalances across countries. The United States now runs a persistent deficit, while China, major oil exporters, and Germany continue to post large surpluses. Global demand for safe-haven U.S. assets perpetuates America’s external deficits, even as those deficits supply the world with the assets it seeks to hold. Maintaining global confidence in the stability of the U.S. government remains essential for the functioning of the international financial system. Yet geopolitical dynamics are becoming increasingly important, and the U.S. has accelerated its efforts to address long‑standing asymmetries. One of the priorities of the U.S. administration that took office in 2025 is to tackle the country’s large and persistent trade deficits — a task complicated by the dollar’s de facto role as the world’s reserve currency, U.S. Treasuries as the global risk‑free asset, and the Federal Reserve’s position as the world’s lender of last resort.

The first panel discussion titled ‘Macroeconomic Adjustments and Policies’ will examine the macroeconomic implications of global geoeconomic fragmentation and rising trade tensions, focusing on global imbalances in current accounts, growth, inflation, trade flows and debt dynamics. As geopolitical rivalries reshape supply chains and trade flows, advanced as well as emerging economies are forced to adjust to shifting patterns of capital flows, exchange rate volatility, and fiscal pressures. The discussion will explore how macroeconomic policies can foster resilience in an era of uncertainty, the role of policy responses, specifically monetary and fiscal policies, and the challenges of sustaining debt ratios and external stability amid turbulent global trade and investment landscapes.

The second panel discussion titled ‘The Future of the International Monetary System’ will explore the challenges facing the international monetary system amid geopolitical fragmentation and changing trade patterns. The session considers how persistent global imbalances shape pricing conventions and cross-border payment arrangements, and how these may impact the use of reserve currencies. It assesses the status of the US dollar as the leading reserve currency and the role of the gold as a reserve asset. The panel places particular emphasis on whether the safe-asset concept continues to function as an effectively risk-free reference across central banks and financial institutions.