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OP 121. Mihály Hajnal – György Molnár – Judit Várhegyi: Exchange rate pass - through after the crisis: the Hungarian experience


Exchange rate movements influence prices through numerous channels. In this paper we provide empirical evidence on passthrough of exchange rate movements into consumer prices. The pass-through depends on a number of factors, and its size may vary over time. In recent years, prices have responded less to a depreciation of the exchange rate than would have been warranted by estimates conducted before the crisis. Before the crisis a 1 per cent change in the exchange rate resulted in a 0.3 per cent change in price level after two years. Currently, the pass-through is estimated to be in the range of 0.1–0.2 per cent over a two-year horizon. Both cyclical (subdued demand) and structural (decline in level of inflation) factors have contributed to the weakening of the relationship.

JEL: C32, E31, F31.

Keywords: exchange rate pass-through, inflation, time series models.