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September 29-30 2005, 4th Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop

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4th  Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop on

Nominal Exchange Rates and the Real Economy

September 29-30, 2005

Budapest, Hungary

Organised by The Magyar Nemzeti Bank, in collaboration with The

Centre of Central Banking Studies (CCBS), of The Bank of England

September 29, Thursday

9:00 – 9:30 Registration

(Magyar Nemzeti Bank V Building, Address: Vadász u. 16.)

9:30 – 9:40 Welcome address

György Szapáry (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Session 1

Chair: Áron Gereben (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

9:40 – 10:30 

Andrew P. Blake (Bank of England): Testing for ARCH against  Nonlinearity: An Application to the Exchange rate  (joint with George Kapetanios, Bank of England)

Discussant: Gábor Kőrösi (Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Central European University)

Paper

10:30 – 11:20

Gunther Schnabl (Tübingen and European Central Bank): Exchange Rate Stability, Inflation and Growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe (joint with Paul De Grauwe, Leuven)

Discussant: Peter Backé (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

Paper

11:20 – 12:10

Jan Groen (Bank of England): Fundamentals Based Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited

Discussant: Carlo Altavilla (University of Naples)

Paper

12:10 – 13:30 Lunch

Session 2

Chair: Jacek Rostowski (Central European University)

13:30 – 14:20

Keynote Speech

Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank): Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?

Paper

14:20 – 15:10

Lawrence J. Christiano (Northwestern): Optimal Monetary Policy in a ‘Sudden Stop’ (joint with Fabio Braggion, Northwestern and Tilburg, and Jorge Roldos, International Monetary Fund)

Discussant: Ákos Valentinyi (University of Southampton)

Paper

15:10 – 15:30 Coffee break

Session 3

Chair: György Kopits (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

15:30 – 16:20

Fabio M. Natalucci (Federal Reserve Board): The Road to Adopting the Euro: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes in New EU Member Countries (joint with Federico Ravenna, UC Santa Cruz)

Discussant: György Kopits (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Paper

16:20 – 17:10

Péter Benczúr (Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University): A Flexible Price Theory of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates and Output (joint with István Kónya, Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University)

Discussant: Andrew Blake (Bank of England)

Paper

19:30   Reception (Magyar Nemzeti Bank Main Building, Address: Szabadság tér 8-9)

 September 30, Friday

Session 4

Chair: Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank)

9:30 – 10:20

Keynote Speech

Philippe Bacchetta (SZ Gerzensee): Can information heterogeneity explain the various puzzles in the foreign exchange market?

Paper1

Paper2

Paper3

10:20 – 11:10

Luca Dedola (European Central Bank): DSGE Models of High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through (joint with Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute and Sylvain Leduc, Federal Reserve Board)

Discussant: István Kónya (Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University)

Paper

11:10 – 12:00

István Kónya (Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University): Economic Development, Exchange Rates, and the Structure of Trade

Discussant: Philippe Bacchetta (SZ Gerzensee)

Paper

12:00 – 13:30 Lunch

Session 5

Chair: Andrew P. Blake (Bank of England

13:30 – 14:20

Jesper Linde (Riksbank): Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through (joint with Malin Adolfson, Stefan Laséen, and Mattias Villani, Riksbank)

Discussant: Jean Pierre Villetelle (Banque de France)

Paper

14:20 – 15:10

Niels Beier (Bank of Denmark): International Transmission of Transitory and Persistent Shocks under Imperfect Information (joint with Torben Andersen, University of Aarhus)

Discussant: Zoltán M. Jakab (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Paper

15:10 – 15:30 Coffee break

Session 6

Chair: Attila Csajbók (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

15:30 – 16:20

Michael Dotsey (Philadelphia FED): Non-tradable Retail Services and Alternative Price Setting (joint with Margarida Duarte, Carnegie Mellon and Richmond FED)

Discussant: Attila Rátfai (Central European University)

Paper

16:20 – 17:10

Nooman Rebei (Bank of Canada): Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada? (joint with Hafedh Bouakez, HEC Montreal)

Discussant: Balázs Vonnák (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Paper

19:30   Danube cruise with dinner

Map

Guide

For more information please contact:

MNB-CCBS Workshop 2005

Organising committee:

Péter Benczúr (Head of the Research Division, MNB)

Andrew Blake (Advisor, CCBS)

Gill Hammond (Deputy Director of the CCBS, BoE)

István Kónya (Senior Researcher, Research Division, MNB)

Pictures of the 4th Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop
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September 29-30 2005, 4th Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop
October 3, 2002: Conference on Nominal and Real Convergence of Accession Countries
October 4-5, 2002: 1st Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Research
January 19, 2007 Conference on Inflation Targeting
September 24-25, 2004: The CEPR/ESI Eighth Annual Conference: EMU Enlargement to the East and the West
October 26-27, 2006: 5th Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop on Micro Behavior and Monetary Policy
7th Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop on Productivity, Trade and Development - October 30-31, 2008
October 2-3, 2003: 2nd Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Research
October 29-30 2004, 3rd Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop
11th Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop on: 'Microeconomic behavior and its macro- economic implications during the financial crisis' - September 6-7, 2012
12th EABCN Workshop: 'International Business Cycle – Linkages, Differences and Implications' June 28-29, 2010
February 27-28, 2003: Monetary Strategies for Accession Countries
European Winter Meeting of the Econometric Society, 12-13 November, 2009, Budapest
May 10-12 2007, Frontiers In Central Banking Conference
November 29-30, 2007: 6th Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop on Labor markets, wage behavior and inflation dynamics
August 27, 2007: 2nd Japanese-European Bayesian Econometrics and Statistics Meeting
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