10 November 2025
In July 2025, 60 per cent of the real estate professionals surveyed by the Royal Institution of Chartered Surveyors (RICS) already perceived an upturn in Hungary’s commercial property market. In 2025 H1, investment volume rose in year-on-year terms, and the share of non-resident investors was also higher compared to previous years. At the same time, based on the demand level and the volume of planned new completions, vacancy rates are expected to rise in the Budapest office and industrial-logistics markets over the next 12 to 18 months. Starting from 1 January 2026, the MNB will strengthen credit institutions’ capacity to withstand shocks with the sectoral systemic risk buffer (sSyRB) requirement.
The assessment of the commercial real estate market improved in 2025 H1, but slack economic activity did not provide a favourable environment for a rebound in this sector. Looking at macroeconomic drivers for the commercial property segments, thanks to growing tourism in 2025 H1, performance indicators for the hotel sector rose and retail sales also increased, supporting the improvement in occupancy and utilisation rates seen in both segments. At the same time, weaker industrial production undermined and restrained activity in the industrial-logistics segment.
In the Budapest office market, the vacancy rate fell by 1.3 percentage points to 12.8 per cent in 2025 H1, while in the industrial-logistics market, the vacancy rate rose significantly, advancing by 5.5 percentage points to 13.4 per cent. As a result, the vacancy rate in the industrial-logistics market in Budapest and its environs exceeded the office market rate for the first time since 2014. This resulted from the low pre-leasing levels for new completions in the first half of the year and negative net market absorption, which had not been observed in quite some time. Actual demand levels and the volume and composition of planned new completions do not mitigate the risk of oversupply in the office and industrial-logistics markets. Vacancy rates are expected to continue rising in both segments: in the office market, this indicator may rise to 16–17 per cent by the end of 2026 and it may exceed 15 per cent in the industrial-logistics market by the end of 2025.
In 2025, the investment volume on the domestic commercial property market amounted to approximately EUR 300 million, up 67 per cent versus the low baseline from the same prior-year period. High-value transactions played a major role in the evolution of investment volume during the first half of the year. At the CEE regional level, the investment volume rose by 60 per cent in 2025 H1, with prime office yield levels typically stagnating (for properties in the best locations and of the highest quality), which supported the stabilisation of property values.
In 2025 H1, banks disbursed 19 per cent more CRE-backed project loans than in the same period of the previous year. The volume of project loans originated increased in year-on-year terms in all commercial real estate segments except for industrial-logistics properties. According to the MNB’s Lending Survey, in 2025 Q2, 11 per cent of the banks eased lending conditions in all commercial real estate segments with the exception of office buildings, driven by increased competition. Overall, looking ahead to 2025 H2, there are no plans to change standards for project loans. Domestic credit institutions’ CRE-backed project loan exposure is at a moderate level, both in terms of total assets and regulatory capital, and additionally, approximately 70 per cent of the portfolio has a conservative LTV ratio of less than 50 per cent. However, in view of the persistent risks in the commercial property market, starting from 1 January 2026, the MNB will strengthen the shock resilience of credit institutions with sectoral systemic risk buffer requirements.
The MNB’s Commercial Real Estate Market Report is available at the link below.
https://www.mnb.hu/en/publications/reports/commercial-real-estate-market-report