Budapest, 15 October 2026 – Following a moderate improvement in 2025, Hungary’s external position weakened in 2026 H1. The net lending as a percentage of GDP, at 1.6 percent, significantly exceeds the typical level for the region. External debt ratios increased, partly reflecting optimism regarding the Hungarian economy, but still remain at a relatively low level. International reserves continued to substantially exceed the level of short-term external debt in mid-2026.
Following a moderate improvement in 2025, Hungary’s external position weakened in 2026 H1. In 2026 Q2, the annual current account surplus fell to 1 percent of GDP, which may be attributed primarily to subdued export performance – caused by weak German industrial production – having a negative impact on the balance of goods. Taking into account the surplus on the capital account, the economy’s net lending position over the four quarters amounted to 1.6 percent of GDP, which thus continues to significantly exceed the typical level for the region.
The deterioration in the external position observed since mid-2025, when analysed in terms of sectoral savings, may be attributed primarily to the rise in the general government deficit. Household financial savings showed an increase in 2026 Q1, following a decline in 2025. In 2026 H1, the corporate sector’s position once again indicated net borrowing, driven by a decline in operating income and an increase in capital formation.
Against a backdrop of subdued net FDI inflows in the recent period, the net external debt ratio rose to nearly 16 percent of GDP by mid-2026, partly also driven by optimism about the Hungarian economy. This is because foreign purchases of net forint-denominated government bonds and MNB discount bills surged to a historic high, while the decline in yields also contributed to an increase in the government’s external debt. International reserves rose above EUR 60 billion in June 2026, thus significantly exceeding – by more than EUR 14 billion – the level of short-term external debt, which is closely monitored by investors.