The Our Vision column in the June issue of our scientific journal features two essays focusing on the changing international role of the US dollar and the EU's demographic transformation. The studies examine geopolitical blocs, the role of cash in household savings and the bank lending behaviour. An essay analyses the financial interpretation of ESG ratings.
The article by Massimiliano Castelli examines the evolving role of the US dollar in the international monetary system through the lens of reserve manager behaviour. Combining the results of the UBS Reserve Manager Survey with data from the IMF and BIS, it identifies a growing divergence between the decline in confidence in the institutional foundations of dollar dominance and the persistence of dollar-centric reserve portfolios. Views on the dollar are changing, but portfolio adjustments are only gradual. Scenario analysis suggests that meaningful change is more likely to be crisis-driven than incremental.
The essay by Csaba Zalai analyses the economic and regional implications of the EU’s accelerating demographic transition, with a focus on the migration of human capital and the brain drain. He points out that the free movement of labour, while it is the foundation of the single market, deepens regional inequalities and undermines prospects for economic convergence. The author argues that cohesion policy should be reshaped in the 2028–2034 multiannual financial framework to take into account the demographic situation of the Member States and mitigate the brain drain, and that Letta’s concept of “freedom to stay” could provide a new policy framework.
The study by Eszter Boros and Tamás Ginter examines the phenomenon of geoeconomic fragmentation. The prerequisite for fragmentation is the existence of distinct geopolitical blocs, but there is no consensus in the literature on their number and composition. Therefore, in their study, the authors attempt to map the bloc structure of the world economy using a broad set of geopolitically relevant data. Their results show a three-bloc structure, with each bloc organised around dominant powers: the United States, the European Union, and the China-Russia duopoly.
The study by Ildikó Ritzl, Anikó Száraz and Anikó Bódi-Schubert reviews the factors that characterised the holding of forint cash for accumulation purposes between 2022 and 2025. In connection with this, the study examines the motives behind individual cash-holding decisions based on the results of a survey conducted among the adult Hungarian population. Their most important conclusion is that households' savings decisions can be organised into a savings needs pyramid, in which cash plays a significant role in the lowest, safety reserve category, and individuals make what they perceive to be a rational decision regarding cash holding in light of the foregone return.
The study by Christian S. de Leon defines a meta-learning framework for predicting the lending behaviour of commercial banks in the Philippines, based on aggregate bank financial indicators and macroeconomic variables. His results demonstrate that the meta-model consistently achieves superior accuracy and low error rates, and is closer to the lending behaviour of banks. He demonstrated the stability of the model in both volatile and low-variance regimes, while the analysis of the importance of variables highlighted profitability and asset quality as key drivers of lending behaviour.
The essay by Károly Gasteiger highlights that ESG scores are not definitive financial indicators: composite scores are noisy information signals that depend on provider-specific methodologies, data quality, and disclosure practices. The article explains why the green premium, rating divergence, and mechanical interpretations of ESG performance can lead to misinterpretations, and how ESG data can be used more prudently in banking risk management.
In addition to the above, the June issue of the Financial and Economic Review includes a book review, a conference report and a tribute to the memory of the Hungarian edition’s recently deceased copy editor.
The publication can be viewed on the website of our Journal:
The Financial and Economic Review
We wish you a very pleasant reading.
The Editorial Staff of the Financial and Economic Review/Magyar Nemzeti Bank