Occasional Papers

These publications contain the results of analysis and research work conducted at the NBH. Their purpose is to encourage readers to present their comments, which may be useful for the authors in further research. These analyses reflect the views of the authors and do not necessarily correspond with the official views of the National Bank.

Many issues of the NBH Working Papers are published in both Hungarian and English, while some of them are available only in Hungarian or in English.

ISSN 1585-5678 (online)

OP 144. Csaba Burger: Defaulting Alone:The Geography of Sme Owner Numbers and Credit Risk in Hungary OP 143. Vivien Deák-István Nemecskó-Tamás Végső: Payment Habits of the Hungarian Households in 2020 OP 142. Zsuzsanna Hosszú-Gergely Lakos: Early Warning Performance of Univariate Credit-to-GDP Gaps OP 141. László Bokor: Bank Carbon Risk Index-A Simple Indicator of Climate-Related Transition Risks of Lending Activity OP 140. Mark Antal-Lorant Kaszab: Spillover Effects of the European Central Bank’s Expanded Asset Purchase Program to Non-Eurozone Countries in Central and Eastern Europe OP 139. András Borsos-Martin Stancsics: Unfolding the Hidden Structure of the Hungarian Multi-Layer Firm Network OP 138. Barnabás Székely: Funding for Lending Schemes Should Prioritize Sme Lending OP 137. Gábor Lovics -Katalin Szőke -Csaba G.Tóth -Bálint Ván: The Effect of the Introduction of Online Cash Registers on Reported Turnover in Hungary OP 136. Levente Kocsis - Miklós Sallay: Credit-to-GDP gap calculation using multivariate HP filter OP 135. Mihály Szoboszlai- Zoltán Bögöthy- Pálma Mosberger- Dávid Berta: Assessment Of The Tax And Transfer Changes In Hungary Between 2010 And 2017 Using A Microsimulation Model OP 134. Lajos Tamás Szabó: Forecasting external demand using BVAR models OP 132. László Bodnár: Network properties and evolution of the Hungarian RTGS over the past decade OP 131. Péter Bauer – Marianna Endrész: Corporate investment in Hungary-stylised facts on micro data OP 130. Judit Rariga: Service Traders in Hungary Evidence from Firm Level Data OP 129. Péter Bauer–József Kelemen: Estimation of uncertainty stemming from data revision of Hungarian GDP data OP 127. Ádám Banai–Nikolett Vágó–Sándor Winkler: The MNB’s house price index methodology OP 126. Tamás Berki - Tibor Szendrei: The cyclical position of housing prices - a VECM approach for Hungary OP 125. László Békési–Zsolt Kovalszky–Tímea Várnai: Scenarios for potential macroeconomic impact of Brexit on Hungary OP 124. Gergely Patrik Balla –Tamás Ilyés: Liquidity needs and liquidity costs of an instant payment systems OP 123. Ádám Banai–Gyöngyi Körmendi–Péter Lang–Nikolett Vágó: Modelling the credit risk of the Hungarian SME sector OP 122. Péter Bauer– Marianna Endrész: Modelling bankruptcy using Hungarian firm-level data Op Special Issue: Bálint Dancsik–Gergely Fábián–Zita Fellner–Gábor Horváth–Péter Lang–Gábor Nagy–Zsolt Oláh–Sándor Winkler: Comprehensive analysis of the nonperforming household mortgage portfolio usi OP 121. Mihály Hajnal – György Molnár – Judit Várhegyi: Exchange rate pass - through after the crisis: the Hungarian experience OP 119. Péter Bauer: Factors of price convergence and its estimated level in Hungary OP 118. Zsuzsanna Hosszú-Gyöngyi Körmendi-Bence Mérő: Univariate and multivariate filters to measure the credit gap OP 115. Kornél Kisgergely-Anikó Szombati: Banking union through hungarian eyes - The MNB’s assessment of a possible close cooperation OP 114. Katalin Bodnár - Lajos Tamás Szabó: The Effect of Emigration on the Hungarian Labour Market OP 113. Péter Gábriel-Judit Rarige-Judit Várhegyi: Inflation expectations in Hungary OP 111. Zoltán Monostori: Discriminatory versus uniform-price auctions OP 109. Ádám Banai–Zsuzsanna Hosszú–Gyöngyi Körmendi–Sándor Sóvágó–Róbert Szegedi: Stress testing at the Magyar Nemzeti Bank OP 107. Zalán Kocsis–Csaba Csávás–István Mák–György Pulai: Interest rate derivative markets in Hungary between 2009 and 2012 in light of the K14 dataset OP 106. Péter Fáykiss–Gabriella Grosz–Gábor Szigel: Transforming subsidiaries into branches – Should we be worrying about it? OP 105. Dániel Holló: A system-wide financial stress indicator for the Hungarian financial system OP 104. Anikó Bódi-Schubert–Zsolt Ábrahám–Erika Lajkó: Network-based analyses of Hungarian cash supply OP 103. Gábor Kézdi—István Kónya: Wage setting in Hungary: evidence from a firm survey OP 102. Martine Druant–Silvia Fabiani–Gábor Kézdi–Ana Lamo–Fernando Martins–Roberto Sabbatini: How are firms’ wages and prices linked: survey evidence in Europe OP 100. Judit Krekó-Csaba Balogh-Kristóf Lehmann-Róbert Mátrai-György Pulai-Balázs Vonnák: International experiences and domestic opportunities of applying unconventional monetary policy tools OP 96. Éva Keszy-Harmath—Gergely Kóczán—Surd Kováts—Boris Martinovic—Kristóf Takács: The role of the interchange fee in card payment systems OP 94. Sándor Sóvágó: Identifying supply and demand in the Hungarian corporate loan market OP 92. Gábor P. Kiss: Moving target indication: Fiscal indicators employed by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank OP 93. dr. Anikó Turján–Éva Divéki–Éva Keszy-Harmath–Gergely Kóczán–Kristóf Takács: Nothing is free: A survey of the social cost of the main payment instruments in Hungary OP 90. Judit Páles–Zsolt Kuti–Csaba Csávás: The role of currency swaps in the domestic banking system and the functioning the swap market during the crisis OP 87. Attila Csajbók-András Hudecz-Bálint Tamási: Foreign currency borrowing of households in new EU member states OP 84. István Helmeczi: The map of payments in Hungary OP 83. Dr. Anikó Turján: Postal payment services in Hungary OP 81: Zsuzsa Munkácsi: Export structure and export specialisation in Central and Eastern European countries OP 80: Katalin Bodnár: Exchange rate exposure of Hungarian enterprises – results of a survey OP 78. Lóránt Varga: The information content of Hungarian sovereign CDS spreads OP 77. Hedvig Horváth–Zoltán Szalai: Labour market institutions in Hungary with a focus on wage and employment flexibility OP 76. Júlia Király-Márton Nagy-Viktor E. Szabó: Contagion and the beginning of the crisis - pre-Lehman period OP 75. Ágnes Lublóy–Eszter Tanai: Operational Disruption and the Hungarian Real Time Gross Settlement System (VIBER) OP 74. Csaba Balogh–Gergely Kóczán: Secondary market trading infrastructure of government securities OP 73. Zoltán Reppa: Estimating yield curves from swap, BUBOR and FRA data OP 70. Dániel Holló–Mónika Papp: Assessing household credit risk: evidence from a household survey OP 68. Gábor Vadas: Wealth portfolio of Hungarian households – Urban legends and facts OP 67. Balázs Zsámboki: Basel II and financial stability: An investigation of sensitivity and cyclicality of capital requirements based on QIS 5 OP 66. Győző Eppich–Szabolcs Lőrincz: Three methods to estimate the whitening-related distortion of the wage statistics OP 64. Csaba Csávás-Lóránt Varga-Csaba Balogh: The forint interest rate swap market and the main drivers of swap spreads OP 63. Eszter Tanai: Management of FX settlement risk in Hungary (Report II) OP 62. George Kopits: Fiscal Responsibility Framework: International Experience and Implications for Hungary OP 1996/5 Dániel Szakály – Henrik Tóth: Repo markets (Experiences and opportunities in Hungary) /1999/ OP 1999/18 Flóra László: Payment systems and the monetary policy in Hungary OP 1999/19 János Soós: Operational framework of the European Central Bank OP 1999/7 Áron Gereben: The Interbank Money Market in Hungary OP 2001/8 Gyula Barabás – Klára Major: The monetary programme (A methodological description) OP 2001/9 Judit Antal – Gyula Barabás – Tamás Czeti – Klára Major: Liquidity management operations at the National Bank of Hungary OP 2002/10> Edit Horváth–Katalin Mérő Balázs Zsámboki: Studies on the procyclical behaviour of banks OP 2002/24 Attila Csajbók - Ágnes Csermely (ed.): Adopting the euro in Hungary: expected costs, benefits and timing OP 2002/25 Edit Horváth – Anikó Szombati: Risk and regulation of financial groups and conglomerates OP 2002/26 Katalin Mérő (ed.): Papers on the medium-term prospects of the banking sector OP 2003/27 Studies On The Potential Impacts Of The New Basel Capital Accord OP 2003/28 Csaba Balogh and Peter Gabriel: The Interbank Money Market Past and Future Trends OP 2004/30 Norbert Kiss M.: The Effects of Macroeconomic News on Money Markets OP 2004/32 László Baki - Dr Péter Rajczy - Márta Temesvári : Assessing and Managing Operational Risks at the Magyar Nemzeti Bank OP 2005/34. Szilárd Erhart: Driving factors behind O/N interbank interest rates – the Hungarian experiences OP 2005/37 Attila Csajbók - András Rezessy : Hungary's euro zone entry date: what do the markets think and what if they change their minds? OP 2005/38 András Rezessy: Estimating the immediate impact of monetary policy shocks on the exchange rate OP 2005/39 Áron Gereben–Klára Pintér: Implied volatility of foreign exchange options: is it worth tracking? OP 2005/40 Gábor Orbán-Dániel Palotai: The sustainability of the Hungarian pension system: a reassessment OP 2005/42 Áron Gereben–György Gyomai–Norbert Kiss M. : The microstructure approach to exchange rates: a survey from a central bank’s viewpoint OP 2005/43>Szilárd Benk–Zoltán M. Jakab–Gábor Vadas: Potential Output Estimations for Hungary: A Survey of Different Approaches OP 44 Csaba Csávás–Szilárd Erhart: Are Hungarian financial markets liquid enough? OP 2005/46> Julia Lendvai: Hungarian Inflation Dynamics OP 52. Ágnes Horváth–Zoltán M. Jakab–Gábor P. Kiss–Balázs Párkányi: Myths and Maths: Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Adjustments in Hungary OP 57. Ágnes Lublóy: Topology of the Hungarian large-value transfer system OP 59. Cecília Hornok–Zoltán M. Jakab –Barnabás Máté Tóth: Adjustment of global imbalances: Illustrative scenarios for Hungary OP 60. Sz. Benk–Z. M. Jakab–M. A. Kovács–B. Párkányi–Z. Reppa–G. Vadas: The Hungarian Quarterly Projection Model (NEM) OP 61. Gábor P. Kiss: Pain or Gain? Short-term Budgetary Effects of Surprise Inflation - the Case of Hungary