The objective of the publication Trends in Lending is to present a detailed picture of the latest trends in lending and to facilitate the appropriate interpretation of these developments. To this end, it elaborates on the developments in credit aggregates, the demand for loans perceived by banks and credit conditions. Within credit conditions, price and non-price conditions are distinguished: non-price conditions influence changes in the clientele considered creditworthy by banks and the conditions of access to credit. Price conditions, in turn, show the price of borrowing for creditworthy companies. In addition, with the help of the Financial Conditions Index (FCI), the analysis summarises the impact of the financial intermediary system on the economy. In particular, the key statistics examined in the analysis are the following:
- The credit aggregates present quantitative developments in economic agents’ loans outstanding on the basis of banking sector (banks and branches of foreign banks) balance sheet statistics. Both the volume of new loans and net changes in banking sector loans outstanding (net of exchange rate effects) are presented.
- Changes in non-price credit conditions are presented in a qualitative manner based on the Lending Survey, in which the banks that are active in the given segment and jointly cover 85–95 per cent of the credit market indicate the direction of change compared to the reference period. The Lending Survey includes price conditions in a qualitative manner as well, in the form of the spread on the cost of funds, the premium on risky loans and the fees charged.
- The interest rate statistics contain the price conditions, i.e. aggregate interest rates on credit institutions’ new loans realised, weighted by the contract amounts. The lending rate can be decomposed into the reference rate and the spread on the reference rate.
- Banks active in the given segment provide qualitative responses in the Lending Survey in respect of their expectations and the changes in demand for loans they perceive. Similarly to credit conditions, banks indicate the direction of the change.
Within the publication, the findings of the Lending Survey are presented in condensed form, but the responses to the questions and the set of charts based on the findings are published in full on the Lending Survey page of the MNB’s website, available here.
Published by the Magyar Nemzeti Bank
H-1054 Budapest, Szabadság tér 9.
Publisher in charge: Eszter Hergár
Editor: Zsolt Oláh ISSN (on-line)