4th  Macroeconomic Policy Research Workshop on

Nominal Exchange Rates and the Real Economy

September 29-30, 2005

Budapest, Hungary

Organised by The Magyar Nemzeti Bank, in collaboration with The

Centre of Central Banking Studies (CCBS), of The Bank of England

September 29, Thursday

9:00 – 9:30 Registration

(Magyar Nemzeti Bank V Building, Address: Vadász u. 16.)

9:30 – 9:40 Welcome address

György Szapáry (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

Session 1

Chair: Áron Gereben (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

9:40 – 10:30 

Andrew P. Blake (Bank of England): Testing for ARCH against  Nonlinearity: An Application to the Exchange rate  (joint with George Kapetanios, Bank of England)

Discussant: Gábor Kőrösi (Institute of Economics, Hungarian Academy of Sciences and Central European University)


10:30 – 11:20

Gunther Schnabl (Tübingen and European Central Bank): Exchange Rate Stability, Inflation and Growth in (South) Eastern and Central Europe (joint with Paul De Grauwe, Leuven)

Discussant: Peter Backé (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)


11:20 – 12:10

Jan Groen (Bank of England): Fundamentals Based Exchange Rate Prediction Revisited

Discussant: Carlo Altavilla (University of Naples)


12:10 – 13:30 Lunch

Session 2

Chair: Jacek Rostowski (Central European University)

13:30 – 14:20

Keynote Speech

Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank): Trends and cycles in the euro area: how much heterogeneity and should we worry about it?


14:20 – 15:10

Lawrence J. Christiano (Northwestern): Optimal Monetary Policy in a ‘Sudden Stop’ (joint with Fabio Braggion, Northwestern and Tilburg, and Jorge Roldos, International Monetary Fund)

Discussant: Ákos Valentinyi (University of Southampton)


15:10 – 15:30 Coffee break

Session 3

Chair: György Kopits (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

15:30 – 16:20

Fabio M. Natalucci (Federal Reserve Board): The Road to Adopting the Euro: Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Regimes in New EU Member Countries (joint with Federico Ravenna, UC Santa Cruz)

Discussant: György Kopits (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)


16:20 – 17:10

Péter Benczúr (Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University): A Flexible Price Theory of Equilibrium Real Exchange Rates and Output (joint with István Kónya, Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University)

Discussant: Andrew Blake (Bank of England)


19:30   Reception (Magyar Nemzeti Bank Main Building, Address: Szabadság tér 8-9)

 September 30, Friday

Session 4

Chair: Lucrezia Reichlin (European Central Bank)

9:30 – 10:20

Keynote Speech

Philippe Bacchetta (SZ Gerzensee): Can information heterogeneity explain the various puzzles in the foreign exchange market?




10:20 – 11:10

Luca Dedola (European Central Bank): DSGE Models of High Exchange-Rate Volatility and Low Pass-Through (joint with Giancarlo Corsetti, European University Institute and Sylvain Leduc, Federal Reserve Board)

Discussant: István Kónya (Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University)


11:10 – 12:00

István Kónya (Magyar Nemzeti Bank and Central European University): Economic Development, Exchange Rates, and the Structure of Trade

Discussant: Philippe Bacchetta (SZ Gerzensee)


12:00 – 13:30 Lunch

Session 5

Chair: Andrew P. Blake (Bank of England

13:30 – 14:20

Jesper Linde (Riksbank): Bayesian Estimation of an Open Economy DSGE Model with Incomplete Pass-Through (joint with Malin Adolfson, Stefan Laséen, and Mattias Villani, Riksbank)

Discussant: Jean Pierre Villetelle (Banque de France)


14:20 – 15:10

Niels Beier (Bank of Denmark): International Transmission of Transitory and Persistent Shocks under Imperfect Information (joint with Torben Andersen, University of Aarhus)

Discussant: Zoltán M. Jakab (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)


15:10 – 15:30 Coffee break

Session 6

Chair: Attila Csajbók (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)

15:30 – 16:20

Michael Dotsey (Philadelphia FED): Non-tradable Retail Services and Alternative Price Setting (joint with Margarida Duarte, Carnegie Mellon and Richmond FED)

Discussant: Attila Rátfai (Central European University)


16:20 – 17:10

Nooman Rebei (Bank of Canada): Has Exchange Rate Pass-Through Really Declined in Canada? (joint with Hafedh Bouakez, HEC Montreal)

Discussant: Balázs Vonnák (Magyar Nemzeti Bank)


19:30   Danube cruise with dinner



For more information please contact:

MNB-CCBS Workshop 2005

Organising committee:

Péter Benczúr (Head of the Research Division, MNB)

Andrew Blake (Advisor, CCBS)

Gill Hammond (Deputy Director of the CCBS, BoE)

István Kónya (Senior Researcher, Research Division, MNB)