October 2-3, 2003: 2nd Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Research

October 2-3, 2003

Organised by The Magyar Nemzeti Bank, in Collaboration with The Centre of Central Banking Studies (CCBS) of The Bank of England

P R O G R A M

OCTOBER 2 THURSDAY

13:30 – 13:45 REGISTRATION

13:45 – 14:00 WELCOME ADDRESS

Session I: GENERAL ASSESSMENTS

Chair: MARIO BLEJER (Bank of England)

14:00 – 15:00

REBECCA DRIVER (Bank of England) & PETER F. WESTAWAY (Bank of England): Concepts of Equilibrium Exchange Rates

Paper

Discussant: STELIOS MAKRYDAKIS (ECB)

Discussion

15:00 – 15:50

BALÁZS ÉGERT (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) & KIRSTEN LOMMATZSCH (DIW-Berlin): Equilibrium Exchange Rates: Are They Suited for Policy Purposes? An Application to CEE Acceding Countries

Paper

Presentation

Discussant: BERND SCHNATZ (ECB)

Discussion

15:50 – 16:20

COFFEE BREAK

Session II: EXCHANGE RATES AND GROWTH

Chair: BERND SCHNATZ (ECB)

16:20 – 17:20

PÉTER BENCZÚR (MNB): Real Effects of Nominal Shocks: a 2-Sector Dynamic Model with Slow Capital Adjustment and Money-in-the-utility

Paper

PresentationPresentation figures

Discussant: MARIO BLEJER (Bank of England)

17:20 – 18:10

PÉTER BENCZÚR & ANDRÁS SIMON & VIKTOR VÁRPALOTAI (MNB): Evaluating Macroeconomic Strategies with a Calibrated Model

Paper

Presentation

Discussant: LAURA PISCITELLI (Bank of England)

19:00 RECEPTION

OCTOBER 3 FRIDAY

Session III: EXCHANGE RATE ESTIMATIONS

Chair:STELIOS MAKRYDAKIS (ECB)

9:00 – 9:50

ATTILA CSAJBÓK (MNB): The Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate in Hungary: Results from Alternative Approaches

Discussant: BALÁZS ÉGERT (Oesterreichische Nationalbank)

9:50 – 10:40

LAURA PISCITELLI (Bank of England) & PETER F. WESTAWAY (Bank of England): FEER Computation: a Model Based Approach

Paper

Discussant: LÁSZLÓ HALPERN (MTA KTK)

10:40 – 11:00

COFFEE BREAK

11:00 – 11:50

MICHAL BENCIK (National Bank of Slovakia): Modeling the Equilibrium SKK/Euro Exchange Rate in the Convergence Process of Slovakia by Means of a Multi-equation Gap Model

Paper

Presentation

Discussant:ANNA CZOGALA (National Bank of Poland)

Discussion

Session IV: OTHER ISSUES

Chair:ANDRÁS SIMON (MNB)

12:00 – 12:50

ZENON KONTOLEMIS (EC) & KEVIN ROSS (IMF): Exchange Rate Fluctuations in EU Accession Countries

Paper

Presentation

Discussant: LUCIO VINHAS DE SOUZA (Kiel Institute for World Economics)

Discussion

LUNCH

14:30 – 15:20

MARTIN MEURERS (IFO): Incomplete Pass Through in Import Markets and Permanent Versus Transitory Exchange-Rate Shocks

Paper

Presentation

Discussant: ZSOLT DARVAS (MNB)

Discussion

15:20 – 16:10

TIMO WOLLMERSHAUSEN (IFO): Should Central Banks React to Exchange Rate Movements? An Analysis of the Robustness of Simple Policy Rules under Exchange Rate Uncertainty

Paper

Presentation

Discussant ROLAND STRAUB (European Univerity Institute

Discussion

16:10 – 16:30 COFFEE BREAK

Session V: POLICY SESSION

Chair: ANDRÁS SIMON (MNB)

16:30 – 17:20

EDUARD HOCHREITER (Oesterreichische Nationalbank) & GEORGE TAVLAS (Bank of Greece): Two Roads to the Euro: The Monetary Experiences of Austria and Greece

General discussion

Presentation

19:00 DINNER

Organisers

Mario Blejer (Director of the CCBS, BoE)

Zsolt Darvas (Deputy Head of the Research Division, MNB)

Gill Hammond (Deputy Director of the CCBS, BoE)

András Simon (Head of the Research Division, MNB)

List of participants

Map