Program of the October 4-5, 2002 meetings at the Magyar Nemzeti Bank

"Conference on Nominal and Real Convergence of Accession Countries"


"1st Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Research"


October 3 Thursday

13:30 – 14:00 Registration

14:00-14:15 Welcome speech by vice governor Peter Adamecz

Conference on Nominal and Real Convergence of Accession Countries

Chairman: Hamecz, István (MNB)

14:30 – 15:15

“On The Estimated Size of the Balassa-Samuelson Effect in CEC5 Countries”

Prepared by the CEC5 Central Banks

Paper presented by: Kovács, Mihály (MNB)

15:15 – 16:15

General discussion

16: 15 – 16:45 Coffee break

16:45 – 17:30

“Adopting the Euro in Hungary: Expected Benefits, Costs and Timing”

Prepared by a team at the National Bank of Hungary

Paper presented by: Csajbók, Attila (MNB)

17:30 – 18:30

General discussion

19:00 Reception given by Governor Zsigmond Járai

1st Workshop on Macroeconomic Policy Research

October 4 Friday

Session I:Keynote speach

9:00 – 9:45

Henry, Jérôme (ECB): Modelling activities in the ECB

9:45 – 10:00 Coffee break

Session II: Theory of Monetary Policy

10:00 – 13:00

Chairman: Simon, András (MNB)

Berg, Claes (Sveriges Riksbank): Simple Rules for Monetary Policy? Some Swedish Experiences


Discussant: Jakab, Zoltán (MNB)

Benczúr, Péter (MNB): The behavior of the nominal exchange rate at the beginning of disinflations


Discussant: Henry, Jérôme (ECB)

Sinclair, Peter (Bank of England): Should Currency Be Taxed?


Discussant: Világi, Balázs (MNB)

13:00 Lunch

Session II: on Theory of Monetary Policy, cont'd

14:00 – 14:50

Csermely, Ágnes – Vonnák, Balázs (MNB): The role of the exchange rate in the transmission mechanism in Hungary


Discussant: Korhonen, Iikka (Soumen Pankki)

Session III: EMU Accession

14:50 – 16:30

Chairman: Sinclar, Peter (Bank of England)

Van de Coevering, Clement (De Nederlandsche Bank): EU Accession countries and the need for structural convergence and institutional development


Discussant: Rostowski, Jacek (National Bank of Poland)

Schardax, Franz (Oesterreichische Nationalbank): An Early Warning Model for Currency Crises in Central and Eastern Europe


Discussant: Jochem, Axel (Deutsche Bundesbank)

16:30 – 16:50 Coffee break

Session III: on EMU Accession, cont'd

16:50 – 18:30

Jochem, Axel(Deutsche Bundesbank): EU-enlargement and financial integration of CEE accession countries


Discussant: Darvas, Zsolt (MNB)


Chmielewski, Tomasz (National Bank of Poland): Searching for Optimal Balance between Nominal and Real Convergence - Case of Poland


Discussant: Brucháčová, Anna (National Bank of Slovakia)

19:00 Dinner given by Vice-governor György Szapáry

October 5, Saturday

Session IV: Macromodelling

9:00 – 10:40

Chairman: Berg, Claes (Sveriges Riksbank)

Simon, András–Várpalotai, Viktor (MNB): Precaution, optimal external debt and fully non-Ricardian behavior


Discussant: Sinclar, Peter (Bank of England)

Világi, Balázs (MNB): Disinflation and exchange rate pass-through in the presence of asymmetric sectoral shocks


Discussant: Adahl, Martin (Sveriges Riksbank)

10:40 – 11:00 Coffee break

Session IV. on Macromodelling, cont'd

11:00 – 12:40

Vavra, David (Ceska Narodni Banka): The Czech economic transition: exploring options using a macrosectoral model


Discussant: Peeters, Marga (De Nederlandsche Bank)

Kotlán, Viktor (Ceska Narodni Banka): Inflation Forecasts and the Constant Interest rate Assumption


Discussant: Ferenczi, Barnabás (MNB)

13:00 Lunch

List of Participants