Az előadás a Látogatóközpontban 15 órakor kezdődik, angol nyelven.
Felkért hozzászóló: Simonovits András
Abstract
This paper gives a reassessment of the sustainability of the reformed Hungarian pension system with a special focus on whether the introduction of the fully funded pillar in 1998 has led to any improvement in the sustainability of the pension system. After a brief description of the 1997/1998 reform of the Hungarian pension system, we present results from simulations with a revised pension model. Our results show that 1) the pension system is unsustainable with uncovered implicit public liabilities in the system reaching 212% of gdp. 2) The series of policy measures taken since the 1997/1998 reform account for over two-thirds of the uncovered liability implicit in the pension system, reflecting an alarming tendency of undoing the progress made by the reform in terms of improving the system’s sustainability. 3) The funded pillar only helps in lowering the uncovered implicit liabilities, if the transition costs involved in the reform are financed by budgetary adjustment. 4) The returns recorded so far in the private pension funds fall short of expectations and, on the condition that these low returns persist, the second pillar is projected to provide annuities that do not make up for the reduction in benefits received from the public pillar. This conclusion is valid even if we compare a hypothetical sustainable full pay-as-you-go system with a sustainable multi-pillar system.
JEL Classification Number: G23, H55Keywords: ageing, pay-as-you-go pension system, fully funded pension pillar, sustainability, implicit liabilities, simulation