Az előadás a Látogatóközpontban lesz megtartva 15 órától angol nyelven.
Diszkutáns: Kovács Mihály András (KGF)
Összefoglaló
This paper tries to estimate the effect of monetary policy on some components of the GDP and on some price variables. We use three different macromodels, all estimated on or calibrated to Hungarian data of the past 10 years. We find that after an unexpected monetary policy tightening the drop in investments dominates the output response which can be attributed to higher interest rates and the slowdown of investment goods inflation, both contributing to higher user cost of capital. On the other hand, we could not detect any significant change in consumption and net exports during the first couple of years. The former can be explained by the slow adjustment of nominal wages, which temporarily increases real wages. The weak response of net exports is due to the fact that the drop in exports is coupled with a fall in imports of almost the same magnitude.
JEL: E20, E27, E52
Keywords: Monetary transmission mechanism, macromodels, VAR, impulse responses